Estimación del PIB potencial para el caso del Ecuador

Abstract

The purpóse of this paper is to measure Ecuador's potential GDP and the country?s growth potential in the long-run. The potential output approach is relevant for at least two reasons. First, it allows the estimation of the growth capability of an economy abstracting from its position in the business cycle and second, it determines incidentally the current sign of the output gap. After dealing with nine models with statistical and economical fonndations, it was found that 2002 GDP was below its potential with varving estimates of the length of the gap conditional on the framework used. According to the Hodrick-Prescott filter, one of the most popular approaches to extracting the cyclical component of GDP, actual GDP was 2.7% below potential output, i.e., a gap of 2.7%.