Labor Productivity: A Shift- Share Analysis for the Ecuadorian Case
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Published:
Jun 30, 2025
Keywords:
Regional Development, Economic Activity Spatial, Structural Change
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Abstract
Labor productivity is a key indicator for assessing economic efficiency. However, in recent years, it has experienced a concerning global decline, with an annual contraction of 6,4 %. In Ecuador, labor productivity has shown a decreasing trend over the past decade. Therefore, this study examines changes and spatial effects in provincial labor productivity levels in Ecuador from 2010 to 2022. Using panel data from the Central Bank of Ecuador and the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses, we applied traditional and spatial shift-share methods. These methods allow for the decomposition of productivity growth into national, structural, and regional effects. The findings revealed that the Ecuadorian economy remains vulnerable due to its reliance on primary activities, although a shift toward a more service-oriented model is evident. Provinces such
as Pichincha, Guayas, and Azuay serve as development hubs, positively influencing neighboring provinces through economic spillovers. Based on these results, the paper recommends strengthening specific strategies such as economic diversification, increased investment in research and development, and promoting trade links with countries and partners that can boost labor productivity.
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How to Cite
Conde, M. (2025). Labor Productivity: A Shift- Share Analysis for the Ecuadorian Case. Cuestiones Económicas, 35(1), Autor: Marjorie Conde. https://doi.org/10.47550/35.1.1
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Artículos de Investigación
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
References
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Domínguez, A., Santos-Márquez, F., & Mendez, C. (2021). Sectoral Productivity Convergence, Input-Output Structure and Network Communities in Japan. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 59, 582-599.
Duernecker, G., Herrendorf, B., & Valentinyi, A. (2021). The Productivity Growth Slowdown and Kaldor's Growth Facts. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 130, 104200.
Getis, A., & Ord, J. K. (1992). The Analysis of Spatial Association by Use of Distance Statistics. Geographical Analysis, 24(3), 189-206.
González, V., & Moral Benito, E. (2019). El proceso de cambio estructural de la economía española desde una perspectiva histórica. Documentos Ocasionales/Banco de España, 1907.
Haasnoot, C. W., & de Vaal, A. (2022). Heterogeneous Firms and Cluster Externalities: How Asymmetric Effects at the Firm Level Affect Cluster Productivity. Research Policy, 51(6), 104529.
Herrero, S. (2019). La influencia de la productividad y de los factores de producción en las exportaciones de manufacturas sudamericanas. Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, 19(2), 79-98.
Hidalgo-Gallego, S., & Núñez-Sánchez, R. (2023). The Effect of Port Activity on Urban Employment: An Analysis for the Spanish Functional Urban Areas. Journal of Transport Geography, 108, 103570.
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Kazekami, S. (2024). Linkage, sectoral productivity, and employment spread. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 69, 108-123.
Lara, M. (2022). Cambio estructural y transformación industrial en Brasil, Chile y Uruguay. Revista de Historia Industrial, 31(86), 47-77.
Li, G., Zhang, X., Xiao, Z., Liu, W., & He, Q. (2023). Land Under Cereal Production and Environmental Sustainability: Influence of Total Natural Resources Rents in the United States. Resources Policy, 85, 103984.
López, R. (2023). La competitividad de las exportaciones del sector químico mexicano en los Estados Unidos de América y la Unión Europea, 1994-2015. Apuntes del Cenes, 42(75).
Lu, Y., Sica, E., & Wolszczak-Derlacz, J. (2024). Global Value Chains, Wages, Employment and Labour Production in China: A Regional Approach. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 69, 124-142.
Melchor-Ferrer, E. (2020). Determinants of Labour Productivity Growth in Spanish and Portuguese Regions: A Spatial Shift-Share Approach. The Annals of Regional Science, 65(1), 45-65.
Mendez, P., Atienza, M., & Modrego, F. (2023). Urbanization and Productivity at a Global Level: New Empirical Evidence for the Services Sector. Regional Science Policy & Practice, 15(9), 1981-1998.
Mendoza, Á. G. F., Mateos, M. R., & Reinoso, N. G. (2021). Perception and Rating of Tourism Entrepreneurs in the Recovery of Travel Destinations Affected by Social-Natural Disasters: Case Study From the April 16th Earthquake in Ecuador. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 64, 102488.
Montanía, C. V., Márquez, M. A., Fernández-Núñez, T., & Hewings, G. J. (2021). Spatial Shift-Share Analysis: Some New Developments. Papers in Regional Science, 100(2), 305-326.
Moran, P. (1950). Notes on continuous stochastic phenomena. Biometrika, 37(1-2), 17-23.
Mussini, M. (2019). A Spatial Decomposition of the Shift-Share Components of Labour Productivity Inequality in Italy. Papers in Regional Science, 98(1), 283-307.
Nazara, S., & Hewings, G. J. (2004). Spatial Structure and Taxonomy of Decomposition in Shift-Share Analysis. Growth and Change, 35(4), 476-490.
Orellana, M., Urgilés, M. P., & Sarmiento, S. (2023). Las compras públicas en Ecuador como dinamizadora de la economía local. Grupo de Investigación en Economía Regional.
Prettner, K. (2023). Stagnant Wages in the Face of Rising Labor Productivity: The Potential Role of Industrial Robots. Finance Research Letters, 58, 104687.
Quijia-Pillajo, J., Guevara-Rosero, C., & Ramírez-Álvarez, J. (2021). Determinantes de la Productividad Laboral para las Empresas Ecuatorianas en el Periodo 2009-2014. Revista Politécnica, 47(1), 17-26.
Ramajo, J., & Márquez, M. A. (2008). Componentes espaciales en el modelo shift-share: Una aplicación al caso de las regiones peninsulares españolas. Estadística Española, 50(168), 41-65.
Rendón, L., Andrés, R., & Mejía, P. (2019). Shift-share espacial del empleo manufacturero municipal: zonas metropolitanas Valle de México y Toluca, 2008-2013. Economía, Sociedad y Territorio, 19(59), 1213-1242.
Rigby, D., & Anderson, W. (1993). Employment Change, Growth and Productivity in Canadian Manufacturing: An Extension and Application of Shift-Share Analysis. Canadian Journal of Regional Science, 16, 69-88.
Ruault, J. F., & Schaeffer, Y. (2020). Scalable Shift-Share Analysis: Novel Framework and Application to France. Papers in Regional Science, 99(6), 1667-1691.
Sheng, R., Du, J., Liu, S., Wang, C., Wang, Z., & Liu, X. (2021). Solar Photovoltaic Investment Changes Across China Regions Using a Spatial Shift-Share Analysis. Energies, 14(19), 6418.
Simbaña, L., & Carrión, C. (2021). Determinantes de la productividad de las empresas del sector de los servicios en el Ecuador durante los años 2010-2019. Cuestiones Económicas, 31(3), 50-50.
Tampubolon D, Mardiana, Bunga C, & Handoko T. (2021). Perubahan pekerjaan di Kabupaten Kampar selama wabah COVID-19: Analisis dekomposisi sektoral. Juremi: Jurnal Riset Ekonomi, 1(2), 95-104.
Uxó, J., Febrero, E., Ayala, I., & Villanueva, P. (2024). Debt Sustainability and Policy Targets: Full Employment or Structural Balance? A Simulation for the Spanish Economy. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 69, 475-487.
Zhang, Y., & Xu, D. (2023). Service on the Rise, Agriculture and Manufacturing in Decline: The Labor Market Effects of High-Speed Rail Services in Spain. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 171, 103617.
Balaji, S. J., & Babu, S. C. (2020). Agricultural Productivity, Inter-Sectoral Labor Shift, and Economic Growth in India (Vol. 1943). Intl Food Policy Res Inst.
Brondino, G., Lucero, J., & Roitbarg, H. (2023). Productive Specialization and Integration in South America: A Global Input-Output Analysis. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 67, 89-97.
Carrillo-Maldonado, P., Arias, K., Zanoni, W., & Cruz, Z. (2024). Local Socioeconomic Impacts of Large-Scale Mining Projects in Ecuador: The Case of Fruta del Norte. Resources Policy, 89, 104625.
Castillo, K., & Tandazo, T. (2019). Análisis regional del sector servicios en el Ecuador, 2007-2014.
CEPAL & OIT. (2022). Coyuntura laboral en América Latina y el Caribe: Dinámica de la productividad laboral en América Latina. CEPAL & OIT.
Delgado, E. R. M., Ríos, E. B. R., Casasola, D. B., & Jiménez, M. D. М. С. (2021). Artisanal Fishery in Ecuador: A Case Study of Manta City and Its Economic Policies to Improve Competitiveness of the Sector. Marine Policy, 124, 104313.
Domínguez, A., Santos-Márquez, F., & Mendez, C. (2021). Sectoral Productivity Convergence, Input-Output Structure and Network Communities in Japan. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 59, 582-599.
Duernecker, G., Herrendorf, B., & Valentinyi, A. (2021). The Productivity Growth Slowdown and Kaldor's Growth Facts. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 130, 104200.
Getis, A., & Ord, J. K. (1992). The Analysis of Spatial Association by Use of Distance Statistics. Geographical Analysis, 24(3), 189-206.
González, V., & Moral Benito, E. (2019). El proceso de cambio estructural de la economía española desde una perspectiva histórica. Documentos Ocasionales/Banco de España, 1907.
Haasnoot, C. W., & de Vaal, A. (2022). Heterogeneous Firms and Cluster Externalities: How Asymmetric Effects at the Firm Level Affect Cluster Productivity. Research Policy, 51(6), 104529.
Herrero, S. (2019). La influencia de la productividad y de los factores de producción en las exportaciones de manufacturas sudamericanas. Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, 19(2), 79-98.
Hidalgo-Gallego, S., & Núñez-Sánchez, R. (2023). The Effect of Port Activity on Urban Employment: An Analysis for the Spanish Functional Urban Areas. Journal of Transport Geography, 108, 103570.
Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos. (2023). Encuesta Nacional de Empleo, Desempleo y Subempleo-ENEMDU. INEC.
Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía. (2021). Indicadores de productividad laboral y del costo unitario de la mano de obra: Cifras durante el primer trimestre de 2021. INEGI.
Kazekami, S. (2024). Linkage, sectoral productivity, and employment spread. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 69, 108-123.
Lara, M. (2022). Cambio estructural y transformación industrial en Brasil, Chile y Uruguay. Revista de Historia Industrial, 31(86), 47-77.
Li, G., Zhang, X., Xiao, Z., Liu, W., & He, Q. (2023). Land Under Cereal Production and Environmental Sustainability: Influence of Total Natural Resources Rents in the United States. Resources Policy, 85, 103984.
López, R. (2023). La competitividad de las exportaciones del sector químico mexicano en los Estados Unidos de América y la Unión Europea, 1994-2015. Apuntes del Cenes, 42(75).
Lu, Y., Sica, E., & Wolszczak-Derlacz, J. (2024). Global Value Chains, Wages, Employment and Labour Production in China: A Regional Approach. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 69, 124-142.
Melchor-Ferrer, E. (2020). Determinants of Labour Productivity Growth in Spanish and Portuguese Regions: A Spatial Shift-Share Approach. The Annals of Regional Science, 65(1), 45-65.
Mendez, P., Atienza, M., & Modrego, F. (2023). Urbanization and Productivity at a Global Level: New Empirical Evidence for the Services Sector. Regional Science Policy & Practice, 15(9), 1981-1998.
Mendoza, Á. G. F., Mateos, M. R., & Reinoso, N. G. (2021). Perception and Rating of Tourism Entrepreneurs in the Recovery of Travel Destinations Affected by Social-Natural Disasters: Case Study From the April 16th Earthquake in Ecuador. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 64, 102488.
Montanía, C. V., Márquez, M. A., Fernández-Núñez, T., & Hewings, G. J. (2021). Spatial Shift-Share Analysis: Some New Developments. Papers in Regional Science, 100(2), 305-326.
Moran, P. (1950). Notes on continuous stochastic phenomena. Biometrika, 37(1-2), 17-23.
Mussini, M. (2019). A Spatial Decomposition of the Shift-Share Components of Labour Productivity Inequality in Italy. Papers in Regional Science, 98(1), 283-307.
Nazara, S., & Hewings, G. J. (2004). Spatial Structure and Taxonomy of Decomposition in Shift-Share Analysis. Growth and Change, 35(4), 476-490.
Orellana, M., Urgilés, M. P., & Sarmiento, S. (2023). Las compras públicas en Ecuador como dinamizadora de la economía local. Grupo de Investigación en Economía Regional.
Prettner, K. (2023). Stagnant Wages in the Face of Rising Labor Productivity: The Potential Role of Industrial Robots. Finance Research Letters, 58, 104687.
Quijia-Pillajo, J., Guevara-Rosero, C., & Ramírez-Álvarez, J. (2021). Determinantes de la Productividad Laboral para las Empresas Ecuatorianas en el Periodo 2009-2014. Revista Politécnica, 47(1), 17-26.
Ramajo, J., & Márquez, M. A. (2008). Componentes espaciales en el modelo shift-share: Una aplicación al caso de las regiones peninsulares españolas. Estadística Española, 50(168), 41-65.
Rendón, L., Andrés, R., & Mejía, P. (2019). Shift-share espacial del empleo manufacturero municipal: zonas metropolitanas Valle de México y Toluca, 2008-2013. Economía, Sociedad y Territorio, 19(59), 1213-1242.
Rigby, D., & Anderson, W. (1993). Employment Change, Growth and Productivity in Canadian Manufacturing: An Extension and Application of Shift-Share Analysis. Canadian Journal of Regional Science, 16, 69-88.
Ruault, J. F., & Schaeffer, Y. (2020). Scalable Shift-Share Analysis: Novel Framework and Application to France. Papers in Regional Science, 99(6), 1667-1691.
Sheng, R., Du, J., Liu, S., Wang, C., Wang, Z., & Liu, X. (2021). Solar Photovoltaic Investment Changes Across China Regions Using a Spatial Shift-Share Analysis. Energies, 14(19), 6418.
Simbaña, L., & Carrión, C. (2021). Determinantes de la productividad de las empresas del sector de los servicios en el Ecuador durante los años 2010-2019. Cuestiones Económicas, 31(3), 50-50.
Tampubolon D, Mardiana, Bunga C, & Handoko T. (2021). Perubahan pekerjaan di Kabupaten Kampar selama wabah COVID-19: Analisis dekomposisi sektoral. Juremi: Jurnal Riset Ekonomi, 1(2), 95-104.
Uxó, J., Febrero, E., Ayala, I., & Villanueva, P. (2024). Debt Sustainability and Policy Targets: Full Employment or Structural Balance? A Simulation for the Spanish Economy. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 69, 475-487.
Zhang, Y., & Xu, D. (2023). Service on the Rise, Agriculture and Manufacturing in Decline: The Labor Market Effects of High-Speed Rail Services in Spain. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 171, 103617.