La pobreza laboral a lo largo del ciclo económico, del ciclo de vida y entre generaciones: evidencia para Ecuador, 2007-2022
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Published:
Dec 27, 2025
Keywords:
Efecto de edad, Efecto de periodo, Efecto de cohorte, Pseudo-panel
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Abstract
Este estudio examina la influencia de la edad, la cohorte y el ciclo económico en la evolución de la tasa de pobreza laboral en Ecuador, utilizando un pseudo-panel y un enfoque edad-período-cohorte (APC) durante el periodo 2007-2022. Los resultados empíricos evidencian que el efecto del ciclo de vida muestra una tendencia decreciente en la pobreza laboral, con un repunte en la edad media y la vejez. La investigación también muestra que el efecto de cohorte es decreciente para las nuevas generaciones, lo que indica niveles de tasa de pobreza laboral (TPL) más bajos que los de sus antecesores a la misma edad. Los resultados confirman el carácter contracíclico de la pobreza laboral, al evidenciar una relación negativa entre el efecto periodo y el componente cíclico del PIB. El análisis presenta que, en promedio, persisten brechas estructurales que afectan principalmente a los trabajadores informales, aquellos con bajos niveles educativos, los que residen en zonas rurales y quienes se desempeñan en actividades agrícolas. Los resultados sugieren que la pobreza laboral es un fenómeno multifacético, influenciado por shocks macroeconómicos, el ciclo de vida de los trabajadores y las transformaciones generacionales. Además, el comportamiento de estas tres dimensiones varía significativamente entre distintos tipos de trabajadores, lo que constituye un factor adicional que debe ser considerado. Reconocer estas diferencias es clave para diseñar políticas que no solo distingan entre las causas estructurales de la pobreza laboral, sino que también respondan a la heterogeneidad de trayectorias laborales y condiciones económicas.
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Ontaneda, D., Tigre, D., & Saca, G. (2025). La pobreza laboral a lo largo del ciclo económico, del ciclo de vida y entre generaciones: evidencia para Ecuador, 2007-2022. Cuestiones Económicas, 35(2), Autores: David Tigre, Gabriela Saca and Diego Ontaneda. https://doi.org/10.47550/RCE/35.2.5
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References
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Bennett, F. (2017). Size and profile of the working poor in Chile. International Labour Organization. https://www.itcilo.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/ramos.pdf
Brenes Camacho, G. (2014). Rezagados durante la crisis económica: pobreza entre adultos mayores en Costa Rica. Población y Salud en Mesoamérica, 2(1). https://doi.org/10.15517/psm.v2i1.13944
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Cabrera, E., & Gamboa, S. (2022). La mujer en el campo laboral ecuatoriano. Revista Metropolitana de Ciencias Aplicadas, 5(3), Article 3. https://doi.org/10.62452/gn613f33
Campos Vázquez, R. M., & Monroy-Gómez-Franco, L. A. (2016). La relación entre crecimiento económico y pobreza en México. Investigación Económica, 75(298), 77–113. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inveco.2016.11.003
Cheung, K. C.-K., & Chou, K.-L. (2015). Working poor in Hong Kong. Social Indicators Research, 129(1), 317–335. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-015-1104-5 In-Work Poverty Across the Economic Cycle, Life Cycle, and Generations: Evidence from Ecuador, 2007-2022
Crettaz, E. (2011). Fighting working poverty in post-industrial economies: Causes, trade-offs and policy solutions. Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9780857934888
Deaton, A. (1985). Panel data from time series of cross-sections. Journal of Econometrics, 30(1), 109–126. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(85)90134-4 Deaton, A. (2018). The analysis of household surveys: A microeconometric approach to development policy. Banco Mundial. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1331-3
Deaton, A., & Paxson, C. (1994). Saving, growth, and aging in Taiwan. National Bureau of Economic Research, 331–362.
Domínguez-Olabide, P. (2022). ¿A qué nos referimos cuando hablamos de pobreza laboral?: una aproximación conceptual. Revista de Servicios Sociales, 76, 75–85. https://doi.org/10.5569/1134-7147.76.05
Duval Hernández, R., & Orraca Romano, P. (2011). Análisis por cohortes de la participación laboral en México (1987–2009). El Trimestre Económico, 78(310), 343–375.
Espinosa, A., & Mendieta, R. (2017). Fundamentos avanzados para la política económica (Primera). Universidad de Cuenca. https://www.researchgate. net/publication/315826661_Fundamentos_avanzados_para_la_politica_economica
FAO. (2015). The state of food and agriculture. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3930225
Filandri, M., & Struffolino, E. (2019). Individual and household in-work poverty in Europe: Understanding the role of labor market characteristics. European Societies, 21(1), 130–157. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616696.2018.1536800
Fleury, P. S., & Fortin, P. C. (2006). When working is not enough to escape poverty: An analysis of Canada’s working poor. Human Resources and Social Development Canada. https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2008/hrsdc-rhdsc/HS28-53-2006E.pdf
Fredes, D. (2021). Pobreza laboral en Chile, 1990-2017: análisis de edad, período y cohorte [Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile]. https://doi.org/10.7764/tesisUC/SOC/61662
Gammarano, R. (2019). The working poor—Or how a job is no guarantee of decent living conditions. International Labour Organization. https://ilostat. ilo.org/blog/the-working-poor-or-how-a-job-is-no-guarantee-of-decentliving-conditions/
Gollin, D., Lagakos, D., & Waugh, M. E. (2014). The agricultural productivity gap. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 129(2), 939–993. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjt056
Halleröd, B., & Larsson, D. (2008). In-work poverty in a transitional labourmarket: Sweden, 1988-2003. En The working poor in Europe: Employment, poverty and globalization (p. 336). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781848443761.00014
Hussmanns, R. (2004). Measuring the informal economy: From employment in the formal sector to informal employment. International Labour Organization. https://www.ilo.org/sites/default/files/wcmsp5/groups/public/@dgreports/@integration/documents/publication/wcms_079142.pdf
INEC. (2022). Caracterización de grupos de población específica. Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos. https://www.ecuadorencifras.gob.ec/documentos/web-inec/EMPLEO/2022/Octubre-2022/empleo_poblaciones_especificas_octubre2022.pdf
INEC. (2023). Indicadores laborales. Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos. https://www.ecuadorencifras.gob.ec/documentos/web-inec/EMPLEO/2023/Trimestre_I/2023_I_Trimestre_Mercado_Laboral.pdf INEC. (2024). Movilidad intergeneracional en Ecuador: Una primera aproximación. Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos. https://www. ecuadorencifras.gob.ec/documentos/web-inec/Bibliotecas/Libros/cuadernos_trabajo/Movilidad_Intergeneracional_Ecuador.pdf
Jürgen, H., & Lohmann, H. (2008). Introduction: The working poor in Europe. En The working poor in Europe: Employment, poverty and globalization (pp. 11-24). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://scispace.com/pdf/introduction-the-working-poor-in-europe-4b0onmlh1w.pdf
Kenworthy, L., & Marx, I. (2018). Explaining cross-country differences in in-work poverty. En Handbook on In-Work Poverty (pp. 342-358). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781784715632.00027
Lee, D. S. (1999). Wage inequality in the United States during the 1980s:Rising dispersion or falling minimum wage? The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114(3), 977–1023.
Lin, J., & Hao, L. (2023). Bad jobs on the rise? Age, period, and cohort effects on low-paid work in Hong Kong, 1986-2016. Social Indicators Research, 170(3), 1119–1140.
Lohmann, H. (2008). The working poor in European welfare states: Empirical evidence from a multilevel perspective. En The Working Poor in Europe: Employment, Poverty and Globalization. Edward Elgar Publishing. https://ideas.repec.org/h/elg/eechap/13060_2.html In-Work Poverty Across the Economic Cycle, Life Cycle, and Generations: Evidence from Ecuador, 2007-2022
Lohmann, H., & Crettaz, E. (2018). Explaining cross-country differences in in-work poverty. En Handbook on In-Work Poverty. Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781784715632.00009
Lohmann, H., & Marx, I. (2018). The different faces of in-work poverty across welfare state regimes. En The working poor in Europe: Employment, poverty and globalization. Edward Elgar Publishing. https://ideas.repec.org/h/elg/eechap/13060_1.html
Lustig, N., Lopez-Calva, L. F., & Ortiz-Juarez, E. (2013). Deconstructing the decline in inequality in Latin America. En Inequality and growth: Patterns and policy: Volume II: Regions and regularities (pp. 212-247). Palgrave
Macmillan UK. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137554598_7 Macas, S. (2023). El impacto del COVID-19 en el mercado laboral ecuatoriano [Universidad Nacional de Loja]. https://dspace.unl.edu.ec/jspui/handle/123456789/26163
Maldonado, L., Prieto, J., & Feres, J. C. (2018). The working poor in Chile during the period 1990-2013. En The working poor in Europe: Employment, poverty and globalization (pp. 395-415). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781784715632.00031
Martínez, L. (2006). Jóvenes y mercado de trabajo en el Ecuador. FLACSO. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Luciano-Martinez-Valle/publication/367266962_Jovenes_y_mercado_de_trabajo_en_el_Ecuador/links/63c95c9cd9fb5967c2ecb8b9/Jovenes-y-mercado-de-trabajo-en-el-Ecuador.pdf
Marx, I., & Nolan, B. (2014). In-work poverty. En Reconciling work and poverty reduction: How successful are European welfare states? Oxford University Press. https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications/in-work-poverty
Maurizio, R. (2018). In-work poverty in Latin America: Prevalence, driving forces and trends. En Handbook on In-Work Poverty (pp. 365-394). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781784715632.00030
Maurizio, R. (2021). Employment and informality in Latin America and the Caribbean: An insufficient and unequal recovery. International Labour Organization. https://www.ilo.org/sites/default/files/wcmsp5/groups/public/@americas/@ro-lima/@sro-port_of_spain/documents/genericdocument/wcms_819029.pdf
Mincer, J. A. (1974). Schooling, experience, and earnings. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/schooling-experience-and-earnings OIT. (2013). Resolución sobre las estadísticas del trabajo, la ocupación y la subutilización de la fuerza de trabajo. International Labour Organization. https://www.ilo.org/es/resource/resolucion-sobre-las-estadisticas-del-trabajo-la-ocupacion-y-la OIT. (2022). Análisis de la afectación de la pandemia de la COVID-19 en el riesgo de informalidad laboral y pobreza en el Ecuador. International Labour Organization. https://www.iess.gob.ec/documents/10162/27352709/18_Analisis_de_la_afectacion_de_la_pandemia_de_la_COVID19.pdf
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