In-Work Poverty Across the Economic Cycle, Life Cycle, and Generations: Evidence from Ecuador, 2007–2022
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Publicado:
dic 27, 2025
Palabras clave:
Age effect, Period effect, Cohort effect, Pseudo-panel
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Resumen
This study examines the influence of age, cohort, and the economic cycle on the evolution of in-work poverty rates in Ecuador, using a pseudo-panel and an Age–Period–Cohort (APC) approach over the period 2007–2022. The results show that the life-cycle effect reveals a decreasing trend in in-work poverty, with increases during middle and old age. The analysis also indicates that the cohort effect decreases with younger generations, suggesting lower in-work poverty rates (IWPR) than their predecessors at the same age. The findings support the countercyclical nature of in-work poverty, showing a negative correlation between the period effect and the cyclical omponent of GDP. Additionally, the analysis reveals that, on average, structural disparities remain, particularly impacting informal workers, those with low educational attainment, rural residents, and agricultural workers. The results imply that labor poverty is a complex phenomenon, influenced by macroeconomic shocks, workers’ life cycles, and generational shifts. Furthermore, the behavior of these three factors varies substantially across worker groups, highlighting the need to account for this heterogeneity. Recognizing these differences is crucial for developing policies that not only address the structural causes of labor poverty but also account for the diversity in labor trajectories and economic conditions.
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ONTANEDA, D. D., Tigre, D., & Gabriela Saca. (2025). In-Work Poverty Across the Economic Cycle, Life Cycle, and Generations: Evidence from Ecuador, 2007–2022. Cuestiones Económicas, 35(2), Autores: David Tigre, Gabriela Saca and Diego Ontaneda. https://doi.org/10.47550/RCE/35.2.5
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Artículos de Investigación
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Beccaria, L., Bertranou, F., & Maurizio, R. (2022). COVID-19 in Latin America: The effects of an unprecedented crisis on employment and income. International Labour Review, 161(1), 83–105. https://doi.org/10.1111/ilr.12361
Becker, G. S. (1964). Human capital: A theoretical and empirical analysis with special reference to education (First Edition). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/human-capital-theoretical-and-empirical-analysis-special-reference-education-first-dition
Bennett, F. (2017). Size and profile of the working poor in Chile. International Labour Organization. https://www.itcilo.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/ramos.pdf
Brenes Camacho, G. (2014). Rezagados durante la crisis económica: pobreza entre adultos mayores en Costa Rica. Población y Salud en Mesoamérica, 2(1). https://doi.org/10.15517/psm.v2i1.13944
Broström, L., & Jansson, B. (2022). Who are the in-work poor? A study of the profile and income mobility among the in-work poor in Sweden from 1987 to 2016. Social Indicators Research, 165(2), 495–517. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-022-03025-1
Cabrera, E., & Gamboa, S. (2022). La mujer en el campo laboral ecuatoriano. Revista Metropolitana de Ciencias Aplicadas, 5(3), Article 3. https://doi.org/10.62452/gn613f33
Campos Vázquez, R. M., & Monroy-Gómez-Franco, L. A. (2016). La relación entre crecimiento económico y pobreza en México. Investigación Económica, 75(298), 77–113. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inveco.2016.11.003
Cheung, K. C.-K., & Chou, K.-L. (2015). Working poor in Hong Kong. Social Indicators Research, 129(1), 317–335. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-015-1104-5 In-Work Poverty Across the Economic Cycle, Life Cycle, and Generations: Evidence from Ecuador, 2007-2022
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Duval Hernández, R., & Orraca Romano, P. (2011). Análisis por cohortes de la participación laboral en México (1987–2009). El Trimestre Económico, 78(310), 343–375.
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Filandri, M., & Struffolino, E. (2019). Individual and household in-work poverty in Europe: Understanding the role of labor market characteristics. European Societies, 21(1), 130–157. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616696.2018.1536800
Fleury, P. S., & Fortin, P. C. (2006). When working is not enough to escape poverty: An analysis of Canada’s working poor. Human Resources and Social Development Canada. https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2008/hrsdc-rhdsc/HS28-53-2006E.pdf
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Gollin, D., Lagakos, D., & Waugh, M. E. (2014). The agricultural productivity gap. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 129(2), 939–993. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjt056
Halleröd, B., & Larsson, D. (2008). In-work poverty in a transitional labourmarket: Sweden, 1988-2003. En The working poor in Europe: Employment, poverty and globalization (p. 336). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781848443761.00014
Hussmanns, R. (2004). Measuring the informal economy: From employment in the formal sector to informal employment. International Labour Organization. https://www.ilo.org/sites/default/files/wcmsp5/groups/public/@dgreports/@integration/documents/publication/wcms_079142.pdf
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Jürgen, H., & Lohmann, H. (2008). Introduction: The working poor in Europe. En The working poor in Europe: Employment, poverty and globalization (pp. 11-24). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://scispace.com/pdf/introduction-the-working-poor-in-europe-4b0onmlh1w.pdf
Kenworthy, L., & Marx, I. (2018). Explaining cross-country differences in in-work poverty. En Handbook on In-Work Poverty (pp. 342-358). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781784715632.00027
Lee, D. S. (1999). Wage inequality in the United States during the 1980s:Rising dispersion or falling minimum wage? The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114(3), 977–1023.
Lin, J., & Hao, L. (2023). Bad jobs on the rise? Age, period, and cohort effects on low-paid work in Hong Kong, 1986-2016. Social Indicators Research, 170(3), 1119–1140.
Lohmann, H. (2008). The working poor in European welfare states: Empirical evidence from a multilevel perspective. En The Working Poor in Europe: Employment, Poverty and Globalization. Edward Elgar Publishing. https://ideas.repec.org/h/elg/eechap/13060_2.html In-Work Poverty Across the Economic Cycle, Life Cycle, and Generations: Evidence from Ecuador, 2007-2022
Lohmann, H., & Crettaz, E. (2018). Explaining cross-country differences in in-work poverty. En Handbook on In-Work Poverty. Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781784715632.00009
Lohmann, H., & Marx, I. (2018). The different faces of in-work poverty across welfare state regimes. En The working poor in Europe: Employment, poverty and globalization. Edward Elgar Publishing. https://ideas.repec.org/h/elg/eechap/13060_1.html
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Ontaneda, D. D., Guzmán, W. A., Mendieta, L. R., & Răileanu Szeles, M. (2022). Cohort analysis of labor participation and sectoral composition of employment in Ecuador. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 3, 67–87.
Peña, R. (1975). Schooling, experience and earnings. Estudios Demográficos y Urbanos, 9(01). https://doi.org/10.24201/edu.v9i01.316
Rodríguez Cabrero, G. (2010). In-work poverty and labour market segmentation. European Commission DG Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities. https://ec.europa.eu/social/BlobServlet?docId=9016&langId=en Rowntree, B. (1902). Poverty: A study of town life. The Economic Journal, 12(45), 56–62. https://doi.org/10.2307/2957025 Tejero, A. (2017). Permanencia en la pobreza laboral: La influencia de la pobreza pasada en la presente. Reis: Revista Española de Investigaciones Sociológicas, 157, 141–161. https://doi.org/10.5477/cis/reis.157.141
Tokman, V. (2007). The informal economy, insecurity and social cohesión in Latin America. International Labour Organization, 146(12), 81–107.
Van Winkle, Z., & Struffolino, E. (2018). When working isn’t enough: Family demographic processes and in-work poverty across the life course in the United States. Demographic Research, 39, 365–380. https://doi. org/10.4054/DemRes.2018.39.12
Vandecasteele, L., & Giesselmann, M. (2018). The dynamics of in-work poverty. En Handbook on In-Work Poverty (pp. 193-212). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781784715632.00017
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Balleer, A., Gómez-Salvador, R., & Turunen, J. (2009). Labour force participation in the euro area: A cohort based analysis (ECB Working Paper No.1049). European Central Bank.
Beccaria, L., Bertranou, F., & Maurizio, R. (2022). COVID-19 in Latin America: The effects of an unprecedented crisis on employment and income. International Labour Review, 161(1), 83–105. https://doi.org/10.1111/ilr.12361
Becker, G. S. (1964). Human capital: A theoretical and empirical analysis with special reference to education (First Edition). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/human-capital-theoretical-and-empirical-analysis-special-reference-education-first-dition
Bennett, F. (2017). Size and profile of the working poor in Chile. International Labour Organization. https://www.itcilo.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/ramos.pdf
Brenes Camacho, G. (2014). Rezagados durante la crisis económica: pobreza entre adultos mayores en Costa Rica. Población y Salud en Mesoamérica, 2(1). https://doi.org/10.15517/psm.v2i1.13944
Broström, L., & Jansson, B. (2022). Who are the in-work poor? A study of the profile and income mobility among the in-work poor in Sweden from 1987 to 2016. Social Indicators Research, 165(2), 495–517. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-022-03025-1
Cabrera, E., & Gamboa, S. (2022). La mujer en el campo laboral ecuatoriano. Revista Metropolitana de Ciencias Aplicadas, 5(3), Article 3. https://doi.org/10.62452/gn613f33
Campos Vázquez, R. M., & Monroy-Gómez-Franco, L. A. (2016). La relación entre crecimiento económico y pobreza en México. Investigación Económica, 75(298), 77–113. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inveco.2016.11.003
Cheung, K. C.-K., & Chou, K.-L. (2015). Working poor in Hong Kong. Social Indicators Research, 129(1), 317–335. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-015-1104-5 In-Work Poverty Across the Economic Cycle, Life Cycle, and Generations: Evidence from Ecuador, 2007-2022
Crettaz, E. (2011). Fighting working poverty in post-industrial economies: Causes, trade-offs and policy solutions. Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9780857934888
Deaton, A. (1985). Panel data from time series of cross-sections. Journal of Econometrics, 30(1), 109–126. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(85)90134-4 Deaton, A. (2018). The analysis of household surveys: A microeconometric approach to development policy. Banco Mundial. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1331-3
Deaton, A., & Paxson, C. (1994). Saving, growth, and aging in Taiwan. National Bureau of Economic Research, 331–362.
Domínguez-Olabide, P. (2022). ¿A qué nos referimos cuando hablamos de pobreza laboral?: una aproximación conceptual. Revista de Servicios Sociales, 76, 75–85. https://doi.org/10.5569/1134-7147.76.05
Duval Hernández, R., & Orraca Romano, P. (2011). Análisis por cohortes de la participación laboral en México (1987–2009). El Trimestre Económico, 78(310), 343–375.
Espinosa, A., & Mendieta, R. (2017). Fundamentos avanzados para la política económica (Primera). Universidad de Cuenca. https://www.researchgate. net/publication/315826661_Fundamentos_avanzados_para_la_politica_economica
FAO. (2015). The state of food and agriculture. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3930225
Filandri, M., & Struffolino, E. (2019). Individual and household in-work poverty in Europe: Understanding the role of labor market characteristics. European Societies, 21(1), 130–157. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616696.2018.1536800
Fleury, P. S., & Fortin, P. C. (2006). When working is not enough to escape poverty: An analysis of Canada’s working poor. Human Resources and Social Development Canada. https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2008/hrsdc-rhdsc/HS28-53-2006E.pdf
Fredes, D. (2021). Pobreza laboral en Chile, 1990-2017: análisis de edad, período y cohorte [Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile]. https://doi.org/10.7764/tesisUC/SOC/61662
Gammarano, R. (2019). The working poor—Or how a job is no guarantee of decent living conditions. International Labour Organization. https://ilostat. ilo.org/blog/the-working-poor-or-how-a-job-is-no-guarantee-of-decentliving-conditions/
Gollin, D., Lagakos, D., & Waugh, M. E. (2014). The agricultural productivity gap. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 129(2), 939–993. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjt056
Halleröd, B., & Larsson, D. (2008). In-work poverty in a transitional labourmarket: Sweden, 1988-2003. En The working poor in Europe: Employment, poverty and globalization (p. 336). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781848443761.00014
Hussmanns, R. (2004). Measuring the informal economy: From employment in the formal sector to informal employment. International Labour Organization. https://www.ilo.org/sites/default/files/wcmsp5/groups/public/@dgreports/@integration/documents/publication/wcms_079142.pdf
INEC. (2022). Caracterización de grupos de población específica. Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos. https://www.ecuadorencifras.gob.ec/documentos/web-inec/EMPLEO/2022/Octubre-2022/empleo_poblaciones_especificas_octubre2022.pdf
INEC. (2023). Indicadores laborales. Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos. https://www.ecuadorencifras.gob.ec/documentos/web-inec/EMPLEO/2023/Trimestre_I/2023_I_Trimestre_Mercado_Laboral.pdf INEC. (2024). Movilidad intergeneracional en Ecuador: Una primera aproximación. Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos. https://www. ecuadorencifras.gob.ec/documentos/web-inec/Bibliotecas/Libros/cuadernos_trabajo/Movilidad_Intergeneracional_Ecuador.pdf
Jürgen, H., & Lohmann, H. (2008). Introduction: The working poor in Europe. En The working poor in Europe: Employment, poverty and globalization (pp. 11-24). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://scispace.com/pdf/introduction-the-working-poor-in-europe-4b0onmlh1w.pdf
Kenworthy, L., & Marx, I. (2018). Explaining cross-country differences in in-work poverty. En Handbook on In-Work Poverty (pp. 342-358). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781784715632.00027
Lee, D. S. (1999). Wage inequality in the United States during the 1980s:Rising dispersion or falling minimum wage? The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114(3), 977–1023.
Lin, J., & Hao, L. (2023). Bad jobs on the rise? Age, period, and cohort effects on low-paid work in Hong Kong, 1986-2016. Social Indicators Research, 170(3), 1119–1140.
Lohmann, H. (2008). The working poor in European welfare states: Empirical evidence from a multilevel perspective. En The Working Poor in Europe: Employment, Poverty and Globalization. Edward Elgar Publishing. https://ideas.repec.org/h/elg/eechap/13060_2.html In-Work Poverty Across the Economic Cycle, Life Cycle, and Generations: Evidence from Ecuador, 2007-2022
Lohmann, H., & Crettaz, E. (2018). Explaining cross-country differences in in-work poverty. En Handbook on In-Work Poverty. Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781784715632.00009
Lohmann, H., & Marx, I. (2018). The different faces of in-work poverty across welfare state regimes. En The working poor in Europe: Employment, poverty and globalization. Edward Elgar Publishing. https://ideas.repec.org/h/elg/eechap/13060_1.html
Lustig, N., Lopez-Calva, L. F., & Ortiz-Juarez, E. (2013). Deconstructing the decline in inequality in Latin America. En Inequality and growth: Patterns and policy: Volume II: Regions and regularities (pp. 212-247). Palgrave
Macmillan UK. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137554598_7 Macas, S. (2023). El impacto del COVID-19 en el mercado laboral ecuatoriano [Universidad Nacional de Loja]. https://dspace.unl.edu.ec/jspui/handle/123456789/26163
Maldonado, L., Prieto, J., & Feres, J. C. (2018). The working poor in Chile during the period 1990-2013. En The working poor in Europe: Employment, poverty and globalization (pp. 395-415). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781784715632.00031
Martínez, L. (2006). Jóvenes y mercado de trabajo en el Ecuador. FLACSO. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Luciano-Martinez-Valle/publication/367266962_Jovenes_y_mercado_de_trabajo_en_el_Ecuador/links/63c95c9cd9fb5967c2ecb8b9/Jovenes-y-mercado-de-trabajo-en-el-Ecuador.pdf
Marx, I., & Nolan, B. (2014). In-work poverty. En Reconciling work and poverty reduction: How successful are European welfare states? Oxford University Press. https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications/in-work-poverty
Maurizio, R. (2018). In-work poverty in Latin America: Prevalence, driving forces and trends. En Handbook on In-Work Poverty (pp. 365-394). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781784715632.00030
Maurizio, R. (2021). Employment and informality in Latin America and the Caribbean: An insufficient and unequal recovery. International Labour Organization. https://www.ilo.org/sites/default/files/wcmsp5/groups/public/@americas/@ro-lima/@sro-port_of_spain/documents/genericdocument/wcms_819029.pdf
Mincer, J. A. (1974). Schooling, experience, and earnings. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/schooling-experience-and-earnings OIT. (2013). Resolución sobre las estadísticas del trabajo, la ocupación y la subutilización de la fuerza de trabajo. International Labour Organization. https://www.ilo.org/es/resource/resolucion-sobre-las-estadisticas-del-trabajo-la-ocupacion-y-la OIT. (2022). Análisis de la afectación de la pandemia de la COVID-19 en el riesgo de informalidad laboral y pobreza en el Ecuador. International Labour Organization. https://www.iess.gob.ec/documents/10162/27352709/18_Analisis_de_la_afectacion_de_la_pandemia_de_la_COVID19.pdf
Ontaneda, D. D., Guzmán, W. A., Mendieta, L. R., & Răileanu Szeles, M. (2022). Cohort analysis of labor participation and sectoral composition of employment in Ecuador. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 3, 67–87.
Peña, R. (1975). Schooling, experience and earnings. Estudios Demográficos y Urbanos, 9(01). https://doi.org/10.24201/edu.v9i01.316
Rodríguez Cabrero, G. (2010). In-work poverty and labour market segmentation. European Commission DG Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities. https://ec.europa.eu/social/BlobServlet?docId=9016&langId=en Rowntree, B. (1902). Poverty: A study of town life. The Economic Journal, 12(45), 56–62. https://doi.org/10.2307/2957025 Tejero, A. (2017). Permanencia en la pobreza laboral: La influencia de la pobreza pasada en la presente. Reis: Revista Española de Investigaciones Sociológicas, 157, 141–161. https://doi.org/10.5477/cis/reis.157.141
Tokman, V. (2007). The informal economy, insecurity and social cohesión in Latin America. International Labour Organization, 146(12), 81–107.
Van Winkle, Z., & Struffolino, E. (2018). When working isn’t enough: Family demographic processes and in-work poverty across the life course in the United States. Demographic Research, 39, 365–380. https://doi. org/10.4054/DemRes.2018.39.12
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