Impacto diferencial de los ingresos provenientes de los recursos naturales sobre la deuda pública global: un enfoque de regresiones cuantílicas.
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Publicado:
dic 27, 2025
Palabras clave:
Recursos naturales, Deuda pública, Crecimiento económico
Contenido principal del artículo
Resumen
La relación entre la deuda pública y la renta de recursos naturales es un tema de creciente relevancia en la economía global. En muchos países, la explotación de recursos naturales no solo constituye una importante fuente de ingresos, sino que también puede influir de manera significativa en la dinámica de la deuda pública. Por lo tanto, esta investigación tiene como objetivo examinar la relación entre la renta de recursos naturales y la deuda pública a nivel global, y en diferentes grupos de países, clasificados por nivel de ingresos, durante el periodo 1995-2022. En efecto, se utilizaron técnicas econométricas de segunda generación que controlan la dependencia transversal entre los países examinados, donde se encontró que existe dependencia y cointegración a largo plazo en las variables del modelo. Asimismo, mediante regresiones cuantílicas, se encontró que la renta de recursos naturales y el crecimiento económico contribuyen a disminuir la deuda pública; mientras que la tecnología y el desempleo tienden a incrementarla. Únicamente la desigualdad presenta efectos heterogéneos según su nivel de desarrollo: en los países desarrollados reduce la deuda pública, y en los países en desarrollo la aumenta. Finalmente, este estudio plantea varias implicaciones de política para lograr una deuda pública equilibrada, subrayando la importancia de una administración eficiente de los ingresos provenientes de los recursos naturales y una inversión estratégica en sectores que promuevan el crecimiento económico sostenible.
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Ruiz, Y. (2025). Impacto diferencial de los ingresos provenientes de los recursos naturales sobre la deuda pública global: un enfoque de regresiones cuantílicas . Cuestiones Económicas, 35(2), Autor: Yomara Ruiz. https://doi.org/10.47550/RCE/35.2.7
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Akalbeo, B., Martinez-Vazquez, J., & Yedgenov, B. (2023). Fiscal decentralization and structural versus cyclical unemployment levels. European Journal of Political Economy, 80, 102477. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2023.102477
Alsamara, M., Mrabet, Z., & Mimouni, K. (2024). The threshold effects of public debt on economic growth in MENA countries: Do energy endowments matter? International Review of Economics & Finance, 89, 458–470. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2023.10.015
Ampofo, G. M. K., Jinhua, C., Bosah, P. C., Ayimadu, E. T., & Senadzo, P. (2021). Nexus between total natural resource rents and public debt in resource-rich countries: A panel data analysis. Resources Policy, 74, 102276.
Ampofo, G. M. K., Laari, P. B., Ware, E. O., & Shaw, W. (2023). Further investigation of the total natural resource rents and economic growth nexus in resource-abundant sub-Saharan African countries. Mineral Economics, 36(1), 97–121.
Ayoub, A., Wani, T. A., & Sultan, A. (2024). External debt crisis & socio-economic fallout: Evidence from the BRICS nations. Regional Science Policy & Practice, 100029. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rspp.2024.100029
Azikin, I. S., Utina, D. A., Maddatuang, B., Baharuddin, N., Bin Ridzuan, A. R., & Abd Rahman, N. H. (2024). How do environmental quality and technology affect public debt in Indonesia? A time series analysis. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 14(1), 441–446.
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Borissov, K., & Kalk, A. (2020). Public debt, positional concerns, and wealth inequality. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 170, 96–111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2019.11.029
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Chengyonghui, D., Wei, S., San, O., & Rahim, N. (2023). What role public debt plays to moderate the influence of natural resources on financial development? Appraising the resource-curse hypothesis in MENA region. Resources Policy, 86, 104192. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104192
Chien, Y., & Wen, Y. (2019). The determination of public debt under both aggregate and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Journal of Economic Theory, 203, 105474. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2022.105474
Chletsos, M., & Sintos, A. (2023). The effects of IMF conditional programs on the unemployment rate. European Journal of Political Economy, 76, 102272. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2022.102272
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Chuku, C., Lang, L., & Yoong, R. (2023). Public debt, Chinese loans and optimal exploration–extraction in Africa. Energy Economics, 118, 106516. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106516
Cooray, A., & Özmen, I. (2024). The role of institutions on public debt: A quantile regression approach. International Review of Economics & Finance, 93, 912–928. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2024.03.065
Croce, M., Nguyen, T., Raymond, S., & Schmid, L. (2019). Government debt and the returns to innovation. Journal of Financial Economics, 132, 205–225. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2018.11.010
Dias, J. (2017). Unemployment and sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone: A k-means-r analysis. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 482, 108–117. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2017.04.022
Dumitrescu, E. I., & Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450–1460.
Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI). (2021). Fiscal Monitor: October 2021: Strengthening the Credibility of Public Finances. https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2021/10/12/fiscal-monitor-october-2021-460455
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Goes, I., & Kaplan, S. B. (2024). Crude credit: The political economy of natural resource booms and sovereign debt management. World Development, 180, 106645.
Gilbert, C., & Guénin, H. (2024). The COVID-19 crisis and massive public debts: What should we expect? Critical Perspectives on Accounting, 98, 102417. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cpa.2022.102417
He, K., Gan, Y., & Wu, H. (2024). Natural resources, decentralized system, financial inclusion and sustainable development: Evidence from top emerging economies with resources abundance. Resources Policy, 89, 104674.
Heimberger, P. (2023). Public debt and risk in advanced economies: Eurozone versus stand-alone. Journal of International Money and Finance, 136, 102877.
Herwartz, H., & Siedenburg, F. (2008). Homogenous panel unit root tests under cross-sectional dependence: Finite sample modifications and the wild bootstrap. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 53(1), 137–150.
Huang, Y., Raza, S. M. F., & Usman, M. (2023). Asymmetric role of natural resources dependence, industrialization, and foreign direct investment in China’s economic growth. Resources Policy, 85, 103932.
Irandoust, M. (2023). Active labor market as an instrument to reduce unemployment. Journal of Government and Economics, 9, 100065. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jge.2023.100065
Jalles, J., & Medas, P. (2024). The economic aftermath of surges in public and private debt: Initial conditions and channels. Economic Systems, 101194. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101194
Jie, W. (2020). Inequality and government debt: Evidence from OECD panel data. Economics Letters, 186, 108869. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2019.108869
Klein, M., & Winkler, R. (2019). Austerity, inequality, and private debt overhang. European Journal of Political Economy, 57, 89–106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2018.08.003
Koenker, R., & Bassett, J. (1978). Regression quantiles. Econometrica, 46(1), 33–50. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913643
Li, Z., Doğan, B., Ghosh, S., Chen, W. M., & Lorente, D. B. (2024). Economic complexity, natural resources and economic progress in the era of sustainable development: Findings in the context of resource deployment challenges. Resources Policy, 88, 104504.
Liu, Y., Marimon, R., & Wicht, A. (2023). Making sovereign debt safe with a financial stability fund. Journal of International Economics, 145, 103834. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103834
McCoskey, S., & Kao, C. (1998). A residual-based test of the null of cointegration in panel data. Econometric Reviews, 17(1), 57–84.
Melina, G., Yang, S.-C., & Zanna, L.-F. (2016). Debt sustainability, public investment, and natural resources in developing countries: The DIGNAR model. Economic Modelling, 52, 630–649. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.10.007
Mian, A. (2024, marzo). Romper el superciclo de la deuda. F&D. https://www.imf.org/es/Publications/fandd/issues/2024/03/Symposium-Breaking-the-debt-supercycle-Atif-Mian
Mihalyi, D., & Scurfield, T. (2021). How Africa’s prospective petroleum producers fell victim to the presource curse. The Extractive Industries and Society, 8(1), 220-232.
Morlin, G. (2022). Growth led by government expenditure and exports: Public and external debt stability in a supermultiplier model. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 62, 586–598. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2022.03.009
Ng, C. F., Choong, C. K., & Lau, L. S. (2020). Environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis: Asymmetry analysis and robust estimation under cross-section dependence. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27, 18685–18698.
Olaoye, O. O., & Olomola, P. A. (2023). Sub-Saharan Africa’s rising public debt stock: Is there a cause for concern? South African Journal of Economics, 91(1), 85–115.
Özmen, İ., & Mutascu, M. (2023). Public debt and growth: New insights. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 1–31.
Pedroni, P. (2004). Panel cointegration: Asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests. Econometric Theory, 20(3), 597–625.
Peruzzi, V., Murro, P., & Di Colli, S. (2023). The distributional impact of local banking: Evidence from financial and sovereign-debt crises. European Journal of Political Economy, 80, 102478.
Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265–312.
Pesaran, M. H. (2015). Testing weak cross-sectional dependence in large panels. Econometric Reviews, 34(6–10), 1089–1117.
Persyn, D., & Westerlund, J. (2008). Error-correction-based cointegration tests for panel data. The Stata Journal, 8(2), 232–241.
Powell, D. (2022). Quantile regression with nonadditive fixed effects. Empirical Economics, 63(5), 2675-2691.
Pratibha, S., Sharma, V., & Krishna, M. (2024). Nexus between total natural resource rents and public debt within symmetric and asymmetric framework: Fresh insight from resource-rich economy. Resources Policy, 93, 105007.
Prebisch, R. (1962). El crecimiento económico de América Latina y sus principales problemas. Boletín Económico para América Latina, VII(1), 1–22.
Programa de Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo. (2024). Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible. https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/es/inequality/
Ramzan, M., HongXing, Y., Abbas, Q., Fatima, S., & Hussain, R. Y. (2023). Role of institutional quality in debt–growth relationship in Pakistan: An econometric inquiry. Heliyon, 9(8).
Raveh, O., & Tsur, Y. (2020). Resource windfalls and public debt: A political economy perspective. European Economic Review, 123, 103371. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103371
Röhrs, S., & Winter, C. (2017). Reducing government debt in the presence of inequality. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 82, 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2017.05.007
Sachs, J. D., & Warner, A. M. (1997). The curse of natural resources. European Economic Review, 45(4–6), 827–838.
Shang, L., & Saffar, W. (2023). Employment protection and household mortgage debt. Journal of Banking & Finance, 149, 106817. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.106817
Simionescu, M., & Cifuentes‐Faura, J. (2023). Analysing public debt in the Mexican states: Spatial convergence, regional drivers and policy recommendations. Papers in Regional Science, 102(4), 737–760.
Tiwari, S., Mentel, G., Mohammed, K. S., Rehman, M. Z., & Lewandowska, A. (2024). Unveiling the role of natural resources, energy transition and environmental policy stringency for sustainable environmental development: Evidence from BRIC+1. Resources Policy, 96, 105204.
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Alsamara, M., Mrabet, Z., & Mimouni, K. (2024). The threshold effects of public debt on economic growth in MENA countries: Do energy endowments matter? International Review of Economics & Finance, 89, 458–470. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2023.10.015
Ampofo, G. M. K., Jinhua, C., Bosah, P. C., Ayimadu, E. T., & Senadzo, P. (2021). Nexus between total natural resource rents and public debt in resource-rich countries: A panel data analysis. Resources Policy, 74, 102276.
Ampofo, G. M. K., Laari, P. B., Ware, E. O., & Shaw, W. (2023). Further investigation of the total natural resource rents and economic growth nexus in resource-abundant sub-Saharan African countries. Mineral Economics, 36(1), 97–121.
Ayoub, A., Wani, T. A., & Sultan, A. (2024). External debt crisis & socio-economic fallout: Evidence from the BRICS nations. Regional Science Policy & Practice, 100029. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rspp.2024.100029
Azikin, I. S., Utina, D. A., Maddatuang, B., Baharuddin, N., Bin Ridzuan, A. R., & Abd Rahman, N. H. (2024). How do environmental quality and technology affect public debt in Indonesia? A time series analysis. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 14(1), 441–446.
Banco Mundial. (2022). Gestión de la deuda pública (Capítulo 5). https://www.bancomundial.org/es/publication/wdr2022/brief/chapter-5-managing-sovereign-debt
Banco Mundial. (2023). Los países en desarrollo pagaron una cifra récord de USD 443 500 millones en deuda pública en 2022. https://www.bancomundial.org/es/news/press-release/2023/12/13/developing-countries-paid-record-443-5-billion-on-public-debt-in-2022
Banco Mundial. (2024). World Development Indicators. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
Bartak, J., Jabłoński, Ł., & Tomkiewicz, J. (2022). Does income inequality explain public debt change in OECD countries? International Review of Economics & Finance, 80, 211–224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2022.02.045
Borissov, K., & Kalk, A. (2020). Public debt, positional concerns, and wealth inequality. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 170, 96–111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2019.11.029
Carrera, J., & De la Vega, P. (2021). The impact of income inequality on public debt. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 24, e00216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeca.2021.e00216
Chen, J., Ma, W., Bilal Kchour, B., & Ribeiro-Navarrete, S. (2024). Resource rich yet debt ridden: The role of natural resources and debt servicing in sustainable economic growth. Resources Policy, 89, 104565. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104565
Chengyonghui, D., Wei, S., San, O., & Rahim, N. (2023). What role public debt plays to moderate the influence of natural resources on financial development? Appraising the resource-curse hypothesis in MENA region. Resources Policy, 86, 104192. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104192
Chien, Y., & Wen, Y. (2019). The determination of public debt under both aggregate and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Journal of Economic Theory, 203, 105474. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2022.105474
Chletsos, M., & Sintos, A. (2023). The effects of IMF conditional programs on the unemployment rate. European Journal of Political Economy, 76, 102272. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2022.102272
Chudik, A., & Pesaran, M. H. (2013). Large panel data models with cross-sectional dependence: A survey. CAFE Research Paper, 13(15).
Chuku, C., Lang, L., & Yoong, R. (2023). Public debt, Chinese loans and optimal exploration–extraction in Africa. Energy Economics, 118, 106516. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106516
Cooray, A., & Özmen, I. (2024). The role of institutions on public debt: A quantile regression approach. International Review of Economics & Finance, 93, 912–928. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2024.03.065
Croce, M., Nguyen, T., Raymond, S., & Schmid, L. (2019). Government debt and the returns to innovation. Journal of Financial Economics, 132, 205–225. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2018.11.010
Dias, J. (2017). Unemployment and sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone: A k-means-r analysis. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 482, 108–117. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2017.04.022
Dumitrescu, E. I., & Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450–1460.
Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI). (2021). Fiscal Monitor: October 2021: Strengthening the Credibility of Public Finances. https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2021/10/12/fiscal-monitor-october-2021-460455
Geelen, T., Hajda, J., & Morellec, E. (2022). Can corporate debt foster innovation and growth? The Review of Financial Studies, 35(9), 4152–4200. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhab129
Goes, I., & Kaplan, S. B. (2024). Crude credit: The political economy of natural resource booms and sovereign debt management. World Development, 180, 106645.
Gilbert, C., & Guénin, H. (2024). The COVID-19 crisis and massive public debts: What should we expect? Critical Perspectives on Accounting, 98, 102417. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cpa.2022.102417
He, K., Gan, Y., & Wu, H. (2024). Natural resources, decentralized system, financial inclusion and sustainable development: Evidence from top emerging economies with resources abundance. Resources Policy, 89, 104674.
Heimberger, P. (2023). Public debt and risk in advanced economies: Eurozone versus stand-alone. Journal of International Money and Finance, 136, 102877.
Herwartz, H., & Siedenburg, F. (2008). Homogenous panel unit root tests under cross-sectional dependence: Finite sample modifications and the wild bootstrap. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 53(1), 137–150.
Huang, Y., Raza, S. M. F., & Usman, M. (2023). Asymmetric role of natural resources dependence, industrialization, and foreign direct investment in China’s economic growth. Resources Policy, 85, 103932.
Irandoust, M. (2023). Active labor market as an instrument to reduce unemployment. Journal of Government and Economics, 9, 100065. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jge.2023.100065
Jalles, J., & Medas, P. (2024). The economic aftermath of surges in public and private debt: Initial conditions and channels. Economic Systems, 101194. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101194
Jie, W. (2020). Inequality and government debt: Evidence from OECD panel data. Economics Letters, 186, 108869. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2019.108869
Klein, M., & Winkler, R. (2019). Austerity, inequality, and private debt overhang. European Journal of Political Economy, 57, 89–106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2018.08.003
Koenker, R., & Bassett, J. (1978). Regression quantiles. Econometrica, 46(1), 33–50. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913643
Li, Z., Doğan, B., Ghosh, S., Chen, W. M., & Lorente, D. B. (2024). Economic complexity, natural resources and economic progress in the era of sustainable development: Findings in the context of resource deployment challenges. Resources Policy, 88, 104504.
Liu, Y., Marimon, R., & Wicht, A. (2023). Making sovereign debt safe with a financial stability fund. Journal of International Economics, 145, 103834. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103834
McCoskey, S., & Kao, C. (1998). A residual-based test of the null of cointegration in panel data. Econometric Reviews, 17(1), 57–84.
Melina, G., Yang, S.-C., & Zanna, L.-F. (2016). Debt sustainability, public investment, and natural resources in developing countries: The DIGNAR model. Economic Modelling, 52, 630–649. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.10.007
Mian, A. (2024, marzo). Romper el superciclo de la deuda. F&D. https://www.imf.org/es/Publications/fandd/issues/2024/03/Symposium-Breaking-the-debt-supercycle-Atif-Mian
Mihalyi, D., & Scurfield, T. (2021). How Africa’s prospective petroleum producers fell victim to the presource curse. The Extractive Industries and Society, 8(1), 220-232.
Morlin, G. (2022). Growth led by government expenditure and exports: Public and external debt stability in a supermultiplier model. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 62, 586–598. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2022.03.009
Ng, C. F., Choong, C. K., & Lau, L. S. (2020). Environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis: Asymmetry analysis and robust estimation under cross-section dependence. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27, 18685–18698.
Olaoye, O. O., & Olomola, P. A. (2023). Sub-Saharan Africa’s rising public debt stock: Is there a cause for concern? South African Journal of Economics, 91(1), 85–115.
Özmen, İ., & Mutascu, M. (2023). Public debt and growth: New insights. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 1–31.
Pedroni, P. (2004). Panel cointegration: Asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests. Econometric Theory, 20(3), 597–625.
Peruzzi, V., Murro, P., & Di Colli, S. (2023). The distributional impact of local banking: Evidence from financial and sovereign-debt crises. European Journal of Political Economy, 80, 102478.
Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265–312.
Pesaran, M. H. (2015). Testing weak cross-sectional dependence in large panels. Econometric Reviews, 34(6–10), 1089–1117.
Persyn, D., & Westerlund, J. (2008). Error-correction-based cointegration tests for panel data. The Stata Journal, 8(2), 232–241.
Powell, D. (2022). Quantile regression with nonadditive fixed effects. Empirical Economics, 63(5), 2675-2691.
Pratibha, S., Sharma, V., & Krishna, M. (2024). Nexus between total natural resource rents and public debt within symmetric and asymmetric framework: Fresh insight from resource-rich economy. Resources Policy, 93, 105007.
Prebisch, R. (1962). El crecimiento económico de América Latina y sus principales problemas. Boletín Económico para América Latina, VII(1), 1–22.
Programa de Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo. (2024). Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible. https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/es/inequality/
Ramzan, M., HongXing, Y., Abbas, Q., Fatima, S., & Hussain, R. Y. (2023). Role of institutional quality in debt–growth relationship in Pakistan: An econometric inquiry. Heliyon, 9(8).
Raveh, O., & Tsur, Y. (2020). Resource windfalls and public debt: A political economy perspective. European Economic Review, 123, 103371. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103371
Röhrs, S., & Winter, C. (2017). Reducing government debt in the presence of inequality. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 82, 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2017.05.007
Sachs, J. D., & Warner, A. M. (1997). The curse of natural resources. European Economic Review, 45(4–6), 827–838.
Shang, L., & Saffar, W. (2023). Employment protection and household mortgage debt. Journal of Banking & Finance, 149, 106817. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.106817
Simionescu, M., & Cifuentes‐Faura, J. (2023). Analysing public debt in the Mexican states: Spatial convergence, regional drivers and policy recommendations. Papers in Regional Science, 102(4), 737–760.
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