Inflación en movimiento: efecto del precio de los combustibles en una economía dolarizada, caso de Ecuador
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Publicado:
jun 30, 2025
Palabras clave:
inflación, precios de materias primas, proyecciones locales, traspaso de la inflación
Contenido principal del artículo
Resumen
Este artículo se centra en la influencia de los precios de los combustibles en la inflación en Ecuador desde el año 2015. A partir del 2018, el Ecuador implementó una serie de medidas en los precios de los combustibles
en los diferentes gobiernos, algunas asociadas al incremento de márgenes específicos y otras con la liberalización a través de un sistema de bandas. El incremento en los precios de los combustibles tuvo un efecto significativo sobre la inflación, incidiendo principalmente en la división de transporte y generando un efecto spillover —o de segunda ronda— hacia otras divisiones del índice de precios. El estudio emplea la metodología de proyecciones locales con el fin de evaluar la magnitud y la duración de este incremento en los precios de los combustibles, así como también la asimetría en la inflación ante una disminución. Los resultados muestran que el alza en el precio del WTI incide manera significativa y asimétrica en la inflación; es decir, ante un shock positivo en el WTI, la inflación se incrementa, pero no hay efecto similar ante una disminución. Además, se analizan los efectos de transmisión adicionales para los precios del diésel en los servicios de transporte.
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Cómo citar
Yaselga Alvarado, E. D., & Bunce, A. (2025). Inflación en movimiento: efecto del precio de los combustibles en una economía dolarizada, caso de Ecuador. Cuestiones Económicas, 35(1), Autores: Emanuel Yaselga y Alan Bunce. https://doi.org/10.47550/35.1.2
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Artículos de Investigación
Citas
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Canova, F., Ortega, E., & Ciccarelli, M. (2004). Similarities and Convergence in G-7 Cycles .
Carrière-Swallow, Y., Deb, P., Furceri, D., Jimenez, D., & Ostry, J. D. (2023). Shipping Costs and Inflation. Journal of International Money and Finan – ce , 130.
Capistrán, C., & Ramos‐Francia, M. (2009). Inflation Dynamics in Latin America. Contemporary Economic Policy, 27 (3), 349–362.
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Orphanides, A., Small, D. H., Wieland, V., & Wilcox, D. W. (1997). A Quantitative Exploration of the Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Econ. Disc. Series , 97-36.
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Rogoff, K. (2003). Globalization and Global Disinflation. Economic Review–Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 88 (4), 45–80.
Romer, C., & Romer, D. (2010). The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks. American Economic Review, 100, 763–801.
Schaffitzel, F., Jakob, M., Soria, R., & Vogt-Schilb, A. (2019). Can Government Transfers Make Energy Subsidy Reform Socially Acceptable? A Case Study on Ecuador . Inter-American Development Bank. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0001740
Taylor, J. B. (2000). Low Inflation, Pass-Through, and the Pricing Power of Firms. European Economic Review, 44 (7).
Baumeister, C., & Kilian, L. (2014). Do Oil Price Increases Cause Higher Food Prices? Economic Policy, 29 (80).
Blinder, A. S. (1982). The Anatomy of Double-Digit Inflation in the 1970s. En Inflation: Causes and Effects . University of Chicago Press.
Borio, C. E., & Filardo, A. J. (2007). Globalisation and Inflation: New Cross-Country Evidence on the Global Determinants of Domestic Inflation.
Canova, F., Ortega, E., & Ciccarelli, M. (2004). Similarities and Convergence in G-7 Cycles .
Carrière-Swallow, Y., Deb, P., Furceri, D., Jimenez, D., & Ostry, J. D. (2023). Shipping Costs and Inflation. Journal of International Money and Finan – ce , 130.
Capistrán, C., & Ramos‐Francia, M. (2009). Inflation Dynamics in Latin America. Contemporary Economic Policy, 27 (3), 349–362.
Cecchetti, S. G., & Moessner, R. (2008). Commodity Prices and Inflation Dynamics. BIS Quarterly Review.
Ciccarelli, M., & Mojon, B. (2005). Global Inflation (No. 537). ECB Working Paper.
Cody, B. J., & Mills, L. O. (1991). The Role of Commodity Prices in Formu - lating Monetary Policy. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 73 (2).
Durevall, D., Loening, J. L., & Birru, Y. A. (2013). Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in Ethiopia. Journal of development economics , 104.
Forni, M., Hallin, M., Lippi, M., & Reichlin, L. (2000). The Generalized Dyna - mic-Factor Model: Identification and Estimation. The Review of Economics and Statistics , 82 (4), 540–554.
Gachet, I., Maldonado, D., & Pérez, W. (2008). Determinantes de la inflación en una economía dolarizada: El caso ecuatoriano. Banco Central del Ecuador, Cuestiones Económicas, 24 (1), 5–26.
Garner, C. A. (1985). Commodity Prices and Monetary Policy Reform. Economic Review, 70, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
Garratt, A., & Petrella, I. (2022). Commodity Prices and Inflation Risk. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 37 (2). Inflación en movimiento: efecto del precio de los combustibles en una economía dolarizada, caso de Ecuador 72 Emanuel Yaselga Alan Bunce
Gordon, Robert (1975). The Demand for and Supply of Inflation. Journal of Law and Economics: Vol. 18: No. 3, Article 22. https://chicagounbound. chicago.edu/jle/vol18/iss3/22
Hamilton, J. D. (1996), “This is What Happened to the Oil Price–Macroeco-nomy Relationship,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 38, 215–220.
Jarque, C. M., & Bera, A. K. (1987). A Test for Normality of Observations and Regression Residuals. International Statistical Review / Revue Internationale de Statistique, 55(2), 163–172. https://doi.org/10.2307/1403192 Johansen, S. (1995). Likelihood Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Auto - regressive Models. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 10.
Jordà, Ò. (2005). Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections. American Economic Review 95 (1).
Kilian, L., and R.J. Vigfusson (2011), “Nonlinearities in the Oil Price-Output Relationship,” Macroeconomic Dynamics, 15, 337-363.
Kose, M. A., Otrok, C., & Whiteman, C. H. (2003). International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors. American Economic Review, 93 (4), 1216–1239.
Kugler, P. (1991). Common Trends, Commodity Prices and Consumer Prices. Economics Letters, 37 (4), 345–349.
Levin, A. T., & Piger, J. (2003). Is Inflation Persistence Intrinsic in Industrial Economies?
Mork, K.A. (1989), “Oil and the Macroeconomy. When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton’s Results,” Journal of Political Economy, 97, 740‐744.
Orphanides, A., Small, D. H., Wieland, V., & Wilcox, D. W. (1997). A Quantitative Exploration of the Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Econ. Disc. Series , 97-36.
Primicias. (2019). Demanda de gasolina Súper cae 38,32% tras la eliminación del subsidio. https://www.primicias.ec/noticias/economia/demanda-gasolina-super-subsidio-petroecuador/
Ramey, V. A. (2012). Comment on Roads to Prosperity or Bridges to Nowhere? Theory and Evidence on the Impact of Public Infrastructure Investment. En NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2012, Volume 27 (pp. 147–153). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Rizvi, S. A. R., & Sahminan, S. (2020). Commodity Price and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from BRIICS. Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, 23 (4), 485–500.
Rogoff, K. (2003). Globalization and Global Disinflation. Economic Review–Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 88 (4), 45–80.
Romer, C., & Romer, D. (2010). The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks. American Economic Review, 100, 763–801.
Schaffitzel, F., Jakob, M., Soria, R., & Vogt-Schilb, A. (2019). Can Government Transfers Make Energy Subsidy Reform Socially Acceptable? A Case Study on Ecuador . Inter-American Development Bank. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0001740
Taylor, J. B. (2000). Low Inflation, Pass-Through, and the Pricing Power of Firms. European Economic Review, 44 (7).